Posted January 8, 2010 at 7:33 am
From ETFDesk Daily:
Much has been made of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) and their return to center state in 2010. There is no argument here that their growth potential is promising, and equally as important, their political clout is rising. It is hard to say that they really deserve the tag of “Emerging Markets” any longer.
The graph below illustrates the enourmous outperformance of the “BRICs” relative to Emerging Markets and the World Index.
Source: Bloomberg
Now may be the time to look beyond the BRIC countries and to look to a new frontier of countries with enormous growth potential. While some of these fall out of the traditional definition of “Emerging Markets” (namely, Australia), who really cares about such titles anyway?
The Business Insider had some interesting insights in going beyond BRICs to the ‘MAVENS’
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Posted January 4, 2010 at 11:21 am
From Seeking Alpha:
As we head towards 2010, we invited ten top Seeking Alpha contributors, most
of whom are professional money managers, to share their thoughts and predictions for the new year.
Click through below to learn how they are now adjusting client and personal portfolios; are they protecting 2009′s gains, or preparing to be more aggressive? What stocks, ETFs and other instruments do they think will perform best in 2010?
We’ll run new responses through the first week of 2010, and update this page accordingly:
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Posted December 30, 2009 at 12:05 pm
by Peter Gorenstein
Tech Ticker conducted hundreds of interviews this year with dozens of guests on numerous topics. But one guest consistently garnered massive amounts of excitement and (for the most part) positive reaction from you, the audience.
Without question, Howard Davidowitz of Davidowitz & Associates is the audience’s favorite guest of the year.
Davidowitz is a straight shooter who always tells it like he sees it.
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Posted December 30, 2009 at 11:55 am
From Barry Goss:
Referencing the GROWING trend for any and all mainstream financial news anchors to squat ‘n’ yodel (or just sing Kumbaya) every time they see a positive stat (no matter how questionable) like the consumer confidence numbers INCREASING, a private highly-paid analyst I have access to finished off his briefing today with:
“You’ve no doubt by now noticed a theme running through my briefings: beware the consensus. Hope is a wonderful and necessary human emotion… but hope is not a strategy.
“I am not prepared to increase the family exposure to equities until I see some real value emerge. In the meantime, I suggest sticking to the low hanging fruit – the slow and steady rise in Treasury yields.”
How To Play: If you’d like to know how to profit from the steady rise in Treasure Yields, go to your Wealth Vault ‘Table of Contents’ and click on the “Stocks, Forex, Futures, ETFs, & Managed Funds” category. Then read the page titled: “How To Short The US Government.”
Getting The Raw Truth: If you’d like to better understand how real data gets distorted, or at the very least repressed in the minds of cheer-leading mainstream reports, you can subscribe to John Williams’s ShadowStats.com or read this article (including the comments section).
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Posted December 19, 2009 at 8:20 am
Despite the fact that Goldman Sachs isn’t exactly the most popular bank on Wall Street these days there is no denying the fact that their trading desk is a money machine. Much of that is due to their spectacular trading in commodities.
In addition to their favorite trades for 2010 (see here for the full details) Goldman also recently released their outlook for commodities in the coming year. Their outlook for a rather robust global economy is in-line with their continued bullish view of the commodity markets. Easy money and stronger than expected demand should help to keep many of the recent trends alive.
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Posted December 15, 2009 at 10:55 am
From Business Insider:
As employment picks up over the decade, America will begin to look like a very different country.
Industries like manufacturing are vanishing. But the senior care sector is booming.
Last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics published an interesting study about job trends and predictions.
Among the things it looked at: the American industries that will see the biggest employment growth from 2008-2018.
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Posted December 14, 2009 at 11:10 am
By Jeff Clark, Editor, Casey’s Gold & Resource Report
Long-term readers know that gold moves inversely to the dollar, meaning if the dollar drops, gold tends to rise (and vice versa). This happens with about 80% regularity. But what many gold writers haven’t acknowledged is the leveraged movement our favorite metal has demonstrated this year to the world’s reserve currency.
The U.S. dollar index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback’s value, has dropped 7.8% so far this year (as of December 3). Meanwhile, gold is up 38.7% year-to-date. In other words, for every 1% drop in the dollar index, gold has risen 4.9%. If that approximate percentage holds over time, one can begin to estimate what the gold price might be if you know what the dollar might do.
While the dollar is likely to bounce at some point, making gold correct, the long-term fate of the dollar has already dried in cement. If the dollar were simply to return to its March 2008 low of 71.30 next year – a 4.6% drop from current levels – this would imply a rise in gold of 22.5% and a price of about $1,478 an ounce.
The long-term scenario is more dramatic. If you believe the dollar will lose half its value from current levels, this would imply a gold price around $4,164. If you believe it will lose 75% of its value, gold would reach about $5,642. Doug Casey has called for a $5,000 gold price; if he’s right, guess what that implies for the dollar?
And think about this: these calculations ignore what else might “show up,” such as when price inflation shows up in the economy, the greater public shows up to buy gold, or the Chinese don’t show up at an auction. Could $5,000 gold be too low?
Unless you think the dollar’s problems are solved, its eventual demise is gold’s eventual glory. Prepare, and invest, accordingly.
And keep up on the gold and precious metals markets in Casey’s Gold and Resource Report. Each month I’ll bring you the best research and investment recommendations in the business. And until December 18, you can get a subscription for 50% off the regular price and receive a free gift worth $79.
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Posted December 11, 2009 at 9:09 am
From Fund My Mutual Fund:
John Paulson… super bull? Goodness.
To some degree I find “whale watching” a bit overrated, but after being the most obvious winner of the mortgage meltdown, and then piling into gold ahead of a huge run … Paulson’s moves are watched by the investment world very closely. One of the hottest investors on the planet is now chock full of bonds – especially the moral hazard kind (i.e. backstopped by US government). And has his highest net long exposure in “a long time”.
No one will be correct forever, but it does make you stand notice…especially since his success is based on actually making big macro calls rather than building an army of computers co-located as close as possible to a stock exchange, so he can surge ahead of your order by 4/1000ths of a second to make mad money.
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Posted December 3, 2009 at 9:53 am
By Brian Hunt:
Deflationists, you’ve lost. Badly.
Early this year, one of the biggest questions an investor had to consider was, “Is the U.S. government’s crazed spending going to stoke inflation and higher commodity prices? Or is the consumer so tapped out that he can’t buy anything… and is a long slog of deflation on the way?”
We’re in the inflation camp… but we always check our theories against the market. It’s the judge, jury, and executioner of any idea. As today’s chart shows, the deflation argument has met the ax. The government’s E-Z-Credit and money-printing scam has clobbered the dollar… and is driving the price of “real stuff” through the roof. It’s behind the enormous surge in the price of gold. And it’s behind the surge in Dr. Copper.
Last month, we tagged $3.25-per-pound copper as the level we’d need to see to say, “Inflation wins.” This week, March copper blasted through that level to reach its highest high since its pre-crash levels in August 2008. “Real stuff” is now shattering price levels as folks flee junk paper dollars the government is handing out like Halloween candy.
Copyright 2008 Stansberry & Associates Investment Research
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Posted December 3, 2009 at 6:04 am
Paolo Pellegrini, John Paulson’s former colleague who helped him craft his large bet against subprime, is now out on his own. PSQR Capital is his discretionary global macro fund that invests all over the world and across the full spectrum of asset classes.
So, what’s his OUTLOOK?
Here’s an excerpt from his first quarterly report.
“We remain fundamentally skeptical about the ability of the US dollar and of US dollardenominated fixed-income assets to retain their value over time. The US dollar is a fiat currency and its value depends entirely on the integrity of US monetary policy. The gravity of the US financial crisis and the inability of the US Administration and Congress to deal with it effectively have forced the Federal Reserve to adopt a no-holds-barred monetary stimulus program, the effect of which could be destabilizing.
“The Federal Reserve’s “unconventional” policy measures have channeled an enormous amount of liquidity into asset markets, thereby inflating prices and alleviating the banking system problems, but they have been far less effective in healing the “real” economy. Policymakers refuse to deal with the problem at the source: excessive household leverage.
“It’s hard to say whether we have reached bottom in the contraction of household demand. Presumably, after cutting discretionary outlays, households go on spending on necessities until they run out of cash. Even in the suspended reality of unemployment, people will delay major adjustments until they become inevitable.
“In addition, the debt-service “holiday” occasioned by mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures in process temporarily boosts borrowers’ spending power. And the inventory of homes in the process of foreclosure has held supply off the market and supported prices. Eventually, however, the debt-service holiday will stop and the inventory of foreclosed homes will hit the market.
“Meanwhile, solvent households will continue to focus on reducing their debt. Therefore, we expect the resulting household credit contraction to subtract significantly from future economic growth just as household credit expansion added to it over the last 10-20 years.”
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