Posted December 20, 2009 at 7:38 am
Vdieo From Dan Mitchell:
Huge deficits and skyrocketing debt levels are creating considerable worry. This Center for Freedom and Prosperity Foundation video explains that that government borrowing is excessive – and will get worse in coming decades.
But this mini-documentary explains that deficits and debt are merely the symptoms, and a rising burden of government spending is the real problem.
A short 5-minute video explains more…
Posted December 9, 2009 at 5:35 pm
President Barack Obama outlined major new government stimulus and jobs proposals on Tuesday, saying the nation must continue to “spend our way out of this recession.”
Without giving a price tag, Obama proposed a package of new spending for highway, bridge and other infrastructure projects, deeper tax breaks for small businesses, and tax incentives to encourage people to make their homes more energy efficient.
Posted December 3, 2009 at 2:27 am
By Donald Grove, Casey Research Washington Correspondent
What are the goals of the Obama administration? What motivates this president and his circle of close advisors?
His signature issue is health care reform. Close on the heels of health care is climate change. Does President Obama’s heart throb with the vision of healthy Americans enjoying affordable, high-quality health care, free from the looming specter of global warming?
Posted December 2, 2009 at 2:30 am
The one thing that seems to provide an explanation for a lot of the things going on today is the continued weakness of the banking sector. It explains the actions of the Federal Reserve System. It explains the actions of the Treasury Department. It explains much of the data that are being released. And, it explains much of the behavior of the banking sector, itself.
To learn the secret, about the banking system, click here…
Posted November 29, 2009 at 4:07 am
By Bill Luby:
I think the best way to look at crises (both big and small) is to think of them as learning opportunities. In the last year or so, many investors whose investing universe was narrowly bound by stocks have now become conversant in credit default swaps, the TED spread, the dollar, the carry trade, bank capital ratios and a whole host of concepts and statistics that they didn’t know existed in 2007.
So should the Dubai situation also be a learning trigger. Not familiar with the political structure of the United Arab Emirates? the history of sovereign default? the principles of Islamic banking? Now is an excellent time to learn – and perhaps profit – from becoming better informed about these issues.
I also see the events in Dubai as an opportunity to identify some sharp thinkers who are on top of the situation and whose work I was not previously aware of. One such instance is Bill Mitchell’s Billy Blog, where I encountered Dubai Is Not a Case of Sovereign Debt Default, one of the best articles I have yet read on the Dubai situation. As for the author, how can you not like someone who provides a handy (Political Compass) plot of his ideology, an email address and a cell phone number on his blog? Mitchell describes himself as a professional musician who also just happens to be a Research Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity at the University of Newcastle, NSW Australia.
One of my mantras is that where there is panic, there is opportunity. Whether you made directional bets on prices or volatility today, I hope at the very least you expanded you knowledge base and sources of information in order to give you a better perspective on events as they unfold next week and going forward.
* * *
Bill Luby is a private investor who also authors the VIX and More blog and an investment newsletter from just north of San Francisco. His research and trading interests focus on volatility, market sentiment, technical analysis, and sector rotation.
Prior to becoming a full-time investor, Bill was a business strategy consultant for two decades and advised clients across a broad range of industries on issues such as strategy formulation, strategy implementation, and metrics, most recently with Luby Consulting Group. When not trading or blogging, he can often be found running, hiking, and kayaking in Northern California.
Bill has a BA from Stanford and an MBA from Carnegie-Mellon.
Posted November 25, 2009 at 8:32 pm
By Jeff Clark, Editor, Casey’s Gold & Resource Report
As you read this, the Chinese government is doing an extraordinary thing… something nearly unheard of in the modern world.
It is encouraging citizens to put at least 5% of their savings into precious metals.
Posted November 23, 2009 at 7:18 am
By John Donovan:
As we approach the 8 month mark of the stock market rally, it’s reasonable that bulls and bears would be anxious for additional confirmation of their respective investment theses.
It is self evident that bulls have been correct on their outlook for stock prices. What isn’t crystal clear is if we are experiencing a true economic recovery that validates the stock market rally, or if continued job losses and government policies will drag the economy back down.
With a few cracks now showing in the armor of the stock market averages, a lagging Russell 2000 being one, it will pay to scrutinize new data on the economy.
Thanksgiving week has a couple of important indicators according to the
Bloomberg Economic Calendar including the release of the first revision to 3rd quarter GDP on Tuesday. Later that day we receive Consumer Confidence information which has slipped lately in other measurements. Durable Goods orders and Personal Income & Outlays follow on Wednesday. With a recent 33 hour average work week, one can’t be wildly optimistic about these numbers. But we don’t know yet and that’s why we play the game.
On Tuesday December 1st the ISM Manufacturing index is released but the “biggies’ that week are about employment. Some attention will be paid to the ADP Employment Report on Wednesday, December 3rd but the most anticipated data for the entire two week period is likely to be the governments Employment Situation report due on Friday, December 4th.
Proving they can also read the economic calendar, and, purely speculation on my part, because they aren’t sure the numbers are going to be very encouraging, the White House announced recently they will hold a “jobs summit” on Thu. Dec. 3.
Some of us remember Whip Inflation Now buttons from the Ford administration. Yes, they actually wore those buttons at press conferences. Or were they inflation summits? Whip Unemployment Now? Talk is still cheap.
Posted January 4, 2009 at 2:01 pm
From Conversations With Casey:
I’ve thought about what I’d do if I were president of the United States, or chairman of the Fed, if my choices were limited to what’s politically possible.
The right thing now, which is to bring on a deflationary collapse that would liquidate much of the malinvestment of recent decades, is not politically possible. With more than 50% of the people in the United States being net recipients of government largesse, no one can get elected, nor stay elected, who applies the breaks to the gravy train. The system is totally corrupt at this point.
I think I read the other day that something like 15% of the population is now on some level of food stamp subsidy, and another 15% are eligible but don’t know it, or are not yet willing to accept the stigma. In the face of these kinds of facts, if anyone in power did what was necessary to liquidate past mistakes and get the economy back on a sound and sustainable path upwards, it would probably bring on a social revolution.
We’re going to have a social revolution anyway, and it’s probably better to have it sooner rather than later. This whole house of cards should have been collapsed back in the ‘60s, as opposed to having been built 40 stories higher since then. That just means it’ll be an even bigger mess when it does collapse.
But it would take immense courage to set that collapse off deliberately. Whoever did it might well end up dead. And the same people who are cheerleading the current leadership’s disastrous moves would blame that courageous person for bringing on the United States’ second and Greater Depression.
So, from at least a personal point of view, there’s nothing to be gained by doing the right thing. Although history would vindicate you, you’d be ostracized now.
Editor’s Note: Get more of Doug’s unique insight on the markets, politics, society – you name it – by signing up for Conversations With Casey. Click here to learn more about this FREE service.