Posted March 2, 2010 at 8:19 am
by CalculatedRiskBlog.com:
Historically the best leading indicator for the economy (and employment) has been housing. I’ve been writing about this for years. For a great summary paper, see Professor Leamer’s presentation from the 2007 Jackson Hole Symposium: Housing and the Business Cycle
For housing as a leading indicator, I use Residential Investment (quarterly from the BEA’s GDP report), and monthly data on Housing Starts and New Home sales from the Census Bureau, and builder confidence from the NAHB.
Two key points:
>> Existing home sales is not a leading indicator (sales of existing homes does not add to the housing stock).
>> This time could be different – the recovery could be led by exports and technology – but I’ll stick with housing.
So here is a review of the three monthly leading indicators:
Filed Under: Market Bytes
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Posted February 28, 2010 at 1:51 am
by Vince Veneziani:
Unfamiliar with the state of our economy?
Good, we’ve got you covered.
Actually the Federal Reserve of Richmond, Virginia is here to help.
They’ve just released a presentation chock full o’ charts with just about every economic indicator
you can think of.
We’ve made it so you can flip through it easily and get a quick overview of the state of the economy.
You may want to consume it in bites, browse it at your leisure, and then come back when you’re looking for something specific.
Filed Under: Market Bytes
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Posted February 26, 2010 at 11:05 am
from Barry Goss
Founding Editor, Market Bytes
Together, my team and I at LWL headquarters in Oregon, sift through a lot of news, links, and interesting tidbits of economic and financial info.
All, of course, in the quest so you don’t have to.
Yet, there’s somebody else that does that too.
Her name is: Rachael Granby.
She’s a full-time Seeking Alpha editor with a focus on market-moving news and live market commentary.
So, if you want a supplement to what we do here every day at Market Bytes, be sure to bookmark this URL:
http://seekingalpha.com/tag/wall-street-breakfast
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Posted February 23, 2010 at 10:30 am
by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.
If you thought Wall Street’s debt crisis was traumatic, wait till you the see the consequences of Washington’s debt crisis!
Never before in history has a world power like the U.S. been so utterly buried in debt! And never before has that debt been financed so massively by foreign investors!
Nineteenth century Mexico, Spain, and Argentina accumulated so much debt, they were forced to default.
In the 20th century, a similar fate befell Germany (1932) … China (1939) … Turkey (1978) … Mexico again in 1982 … Brazil and the Philippines (1983) … South Africa in 1985 … plus Russia and Pakistan in 1998.
Argentina kicked off the 21st century with a default in 2001. And barring a euro zone rescue, Greece, Spain, and Portugal are prime candidates for debt defaults this year.
But in NONE of these examples did we — or do we — see the debt crisis striking a dominant world power! In ALL cases, the debts represent little more than a small fraction of the total debts outstanding worldwide.
Not so in our case today!
In the entire world, the United States government and its agencies have, by far, the largest pile-up of interest-bearing debts ($15.6 trillion), the largest accumulation of unsecured obligations (over $60 trillion), the largest yearly deficit ($1.6 trillion), and the greatest indebtedness to the rest of the world ($4.8 trillion).
In proportion to the size of its economy, one important country, Japan, does have more debt than the U.S. But unlike Washington’s debts, nearly all of Japan’s are financed by its own citizens — loyal, long-term savers who are far less likely to pull out in a storm.
Washington’s debt crisis represents a unique, unparalleled, and unimaginable convergence of circumstances. Because no one can answer this simple question being asked by former GAO chief David Walker:
Who will bail out America?
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Posted February 22, 2010 at 2:23 pm
From Barry Goss:
There’s a myriad of reasons that long-rates are headed higher… most likey sometime this year.
And when rates (yields)) on Treasuries INCREASE, their principal (price) DECREASES.
To find out why the chart below is a very significant measuring stick on how rates will play out, click here..
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Posted February 22, 2010 at 2:12 pm
by John Shipman:
An Association of American Railroads report today has some interesting nuggets that add more texture to the state of the current economic recovery.
Still empty and idle.
In “Great Expectations: Railroads and U.S. Economic Recovery,” the railroad trade group notes US rail carload traffic was down 16.1% last year vs 2008, and off 18.2% vs 2007. AAR said last year’s carload total was the lowest for U.S. railroads since before 1988, when it started keeping track.
And “freight rail traffic today remains well below 2008 levels,” AAR adds.
Not a good sign. As the trade group says, “demand for rail services occurs when there is demand for the products that railroads haul,” which is pretty much everything.
“In other words, if America is not building or buying, railroads are not hauling,” AAR says.
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Posted February 15, 2010 at 9:39 am
by Teeka Tiwari:
While the bulls may be breathing a sigh of relief after last Friday’s stunning end-of-day reversal, they might not be out of the woods yet.
Most of Friday’s trading action was dominated by follow-on selling from the previous day’s 268-point decline. But in the last hour of trading, the market rallied back as traders decided to cash in their short positions.
Late-day reprieve or not, the damage to the charts was already done. The break to 9,800 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was ugly.
The bulls are on their back feet here, but the bull case will require some really, really good news if the markets going to have a chance at propelling higher.
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Posted February 2, 2010 at 7:21 pm
by Ed Rempel:
“Slump? I ain’t in no slump. I just ain’t hitting.” – Yogi Berra
How did you do with the 12 questions in stock market quiz? We have found that most investors have quite exaggerated views about stock market risks, especially after 2008.
The bear market has created fear, much of which is completely unrealistic, based on actual market history. These exaggerated fears have seriously negative results for many Canadians:
1. Being too cautious during the great buying opportunities when markets are low.
2. Investing far too conservatively to be able to reach their retirement goal.
Here are the facts regarding some of the most common misconceptions and myths.
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Posted January 29, 2010 at 3:29 pm
from ritholtz.com:
While everyone awaits GDP data this morning, why don’t we look at the best economic gauge you have never heard of:
It doesn’t appear on any economic calendars that I’m aware of. It flies under just about everyone’s radar. Technically, it’s not a data point itself but a weighted amalgam of 85 other distinct economic data points, an all-in-one look at the United States economy.
And it does an excellent job of tracking the economy’s health.
It’s the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI), and it just printed for December.
Say the folks in Chicago:
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Posted January 20, 2010 at 11:39 pm
by Edward McAllister, Reuters
via FinancialPost.com
NEW YORK — Oil prices fell below US$78 a barrel on Wednesday as the dollar strengthened and Wall Street slipped on worries about bank lending curbs in China.
U.S. crude for February delivery. which expired on Wednesday, fell US$1.40 to settle at US$77.62 a barrel. March crude fell US$1.58 to settle at US$77.74. In London, Brent crude for March delivery lost US$1.31 to settle at US$76.32 a barrel.
U.S. equities suffered their worst slide of 2010 on Wednesday as investors worried that bank lending restrictions in China could hurt the global economic recovery.
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