Posted February 13, 2010 at 7:23 pm
by Larry D. Spears,
Contributing Writer, Money Morning
Back in the 1970s, environmentalists feared we were going to “blacktop the Earth.” It’s not likely that will ever happen. However, governments around the world do have plans to pave a good portion of it in the decade to come. And they also plan to build bridges, power plants, water systems, and to develop other infrastructure projects that will bolster the global recovery and meet the needs of an increasingly modern global population.
What’s more, the projected pace of new infrastructure spending is accelerating, meaning there’s still plenty of time for new investors to climb aboard – and profit from – the trend.
Just a year ago, an analysis by CIBC World Markets (NYSE: CM) predicted worldwide government spending on public works projects would total $35 trillion over the next 20 years. By the middle of 2009, a number of analysts – reviewing projected demands in the commodity and raw materials markets – had raised that forecast to $40 trillion, with nearly $4 trillion of that coming in 2010 and 2011 alone.
Posted February 11, 2010 at 7:23 pm
by Charles E. Kirk
I love the scene in the television show The Office when a woman standing in a long line asks Dwight Schrute to hold her place behind him because she has to go and use the restroom. “No!” he replied. “Did you grow up in a household without consequences?” After looking back at him with a mixture of both disbelief and disgust, Dwight then explained to her that he had taken enough time to go to the restroom BEFORE getting in to the long line and she should have done the same.
Those of us who follow the rules whether it be in life or trading, can sympathize with Dwight, especially when dealing with other people who don’t follow the same rules you think are important and who impact you in some negative way.
I was thinking about that this morning after a few things happened this week that illustrate again that not only do most people break the rules (even the ones they set for themselves in trading) but that most don’t spend a single moment thinking about and considering the potential consequences that could follow BEFORE those rules are broken. And, I think that’s an important point.
The truth is that as traders and investors, we all set rules for ourselves to follow whether we are conscious of it or not. Most of us in fact do a pretty good job of following those rules and, of course there are rare times the rules must be broken. No rule will work perfectly in every type of environment which is why some of the best traders out there are those who learn to be flexible when the environment demands it. A combination of skill and experience will help you know when those rules are not working to your advantage.
But, in those traders who are flexible and successful, you’ll often see something very different which is that they also make absolutely sure that when they do violate their own rules, that they’ve taken enough time and have properly considered all of the most probable consequences both good and bad that could follow before violating that rule. They don’t simply say, I’m not going to follow my trading rule today and at the same time not fully understand the potential consequences that could follow from doing so. As many of you have already discovered, that’s a terrific way to get into a lot of trouble.
I’ve learned over time that when I am contemplating breaking one of my own rules (like chasing a stock that doesn’t fit my low/risk high/reward strategy for example) I also require myself as a matter of habit to stop, think, and quickly outline the probabilities of what could follow if I break or abandon my rule. In doing so, more often than not, by considering those consequences, I’m reminded why I set the rule in the first place and just simply follow the rule. In fact, it is often much easier that way. But, there are rare occasions, where after I go through and outline the consequences that when I consider everything, I think the rule should still be broken in that particular situation.
Learning when that is the case is an important element of being a successful trader. In fact, it is often in the rule breaking and subsequent tracking of the consequences that follow from it that you learn more about who you really are and how to become more successful in the market.
Posted February 10, 2010 at 12:54 am
Over what we saw during the recession, 2009 was the year that dividends were cut down to effect cash conservation to get through the recession. In fact, the dividend cuts may have saved many more thousands of jobs at large companies had the cash not been conserved. But we are seeing a return of the dividend in many large companies so far in the first six weeks of 2010. We wanted to look at other large and widely held stocks and make some dividend growth predictions of our own.
Among the companies we have pegged for large dividend growth in 2010 are Dr. Pepper Snapple Group, Inc. (NYSE: DPS) in food and beverages, J.P.Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) in financials, General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) in conglomerates, Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO) in tobacco, Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) and AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) in telecom, Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) in tech, The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW) in industrials, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) in retail, and Kimberly-Clark Corporation (NYSE: KMB) in consumer products.
Posted February 9, 2010 at 12:16 am
Deutsche Bank started coverage of four North American gold companies, favoring those that have higher free cash flow, and said U.S.-based Newmont Mining (NEM.N) was its top pick in the sector.
The brokerage sees gold averaging $1,150 an ounce in 2010 and $1,250 per ounce by 2011, and said institutional investment in the sector remains strong.
Analyst Jorge Beristain, who started Newmont and Canada-based Kinross Gold (K.TO) with “buy” ratings, said “growth versus value” was the key trade-off for North American gold equities, which could offer leverage and optionality as compared to gold.
“On both valuation and free cash flow yield Newmont appears the cheaper alternative vis-a-vis Barrick, while Kinross trades at a substantial discount to Goldcorp,” Beristain added.
(Reporting by Gowri Jayakumar in Bangalore; Editing by Anil D’Silva)
Posted February 8, 2010 at 10:43 pm
by Jim Sinclair:
I doubt there has ever been a time in financial history when there has been challenges of this magnitude.
This is not business as usual in any form.
>> When have financial meetings been so top secret?
>> When has the military cordon off financial meetings?
>> When have F-18s, F-22s and French Rafales provided air support (as the Swiss did for the Davos seminar) for two central bank meetings in the last few weeks as the USA and Australia did?
Don’t accept terrorism as an excuse for everything that remains unexplained. There are so many lies and so much misinformation out there that the task of figuring out what is real is a daunting task.
I implore you to go for safety in everything you do. How can you go wrong hunkering down?
Do not [over] speculate.
You cannot out trade these people nor can you read their intentions by charts. Both are impossibilities.
Do not deal on borrowed money. Secure you and yours. Take delivery of your precious metals and share certificates.
We are in unchartered seas of international financial turmoil. The mega rich have no loyalty to anyone or anything.
I know some of them, made one of them from scratch, and I assure you would put their mothers in a microwave for the right price. This is a financial world war taking place behind top secret meetings that are deciding our fate while not even knowing they are out of control.
I can’t change this but I can do my best to protect you.
Jim Sinclair is the Chairman and CEO of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corporation (TRE: Altanext NYSE platform, TNX: Senior Toronto Stock Exchange).
He is a precious metals and commodities specialist. Some of the highlights of his nearly 50 year career include the founding of Sinclair Group of Companies (1977), which offered full brokerage services.
Mr. Sinclair served as a Precious Metals Advisor to Hunt Oil and the Hunt family for the liquidation of their silver position as a prerequisite for the $1 billion loan arranged by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker. He was also a General Partner and Member of the Executive Committee of two New York Stock Exchange firms and President of Sinclair Global Clearing Corporation and Global Arbitrage .
He has authored numerous magazine articles and three books dealing with a variety of investment subjects. He is a regular speaker at various commodities related events.
In January 2003, Mr. Sinclair launched, “Jim Sinclairs MineSet,” which now hosts his gold commentary and is intended as a free service to the gold community.
Posted February 5, 2010 at 11:40 pm
From Resource Investor:
2010 is the Year of the Tiger in the Chinese zodiac calendar. And that has been the epitome of the Chinese economy for the last decade. In particular, the Chinese have been pouncing on natural resource assets around the globe to keep their incredible growth curve intact.
One of their most recent purchases – a nickel play in Quebec – could signal an opportunity for investors in a nearby play as well…
Posted February 4, 2010 at 1:10 pm
by John Carney:
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, speaking at a conference in Moscow earlier today, said that shorting Treasuries is a “no brainer.”
Due to the policies of the Obama administration and Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, “every single human being” should bet U.S. Treasury bonds will decline.
“Every single human being should have that trade,” Taleb said.
[ Editor’s Note – For the best way to do this, login to your members area, if you’re not already, and read the content page titled: “How to Short The U.S. Government.”
Posted February 3, 2010 at 7:14 pm
by Aamar Shehzad:
What separates the 10% that make money from the 90% that don’t?
1. 10,000 hours
In his recent book Outliers: The Story of Success, Malcolm Gladwell describes the 10,000-Hour Rule, claiming that the key to success in any cognitively complex field is, to a large extent, a matter of practicing a specific task for a total of around 10,000 hours. 10,000 hours equates to around 4hrs a day for 10 years.
For some reason most people that ‘try their hand’ at trading view it as a get rich quick scheme. That in a very short space of time, they will be able to turn $500 into $1 million! It is precisely this mindset that has resulted in the current economic mess, a bunch of 20-somethings being handed the red phone for financial weapons of mass destruction.
The greatest traders understand that trading much like being a doctor, engineer or any other focused and technical endeavor requires time to develop and hone the skill set. Now you wouldn’t see a doctor performing open heart surgery after 3 months on a surgery simulator. Why would trading as a technical undertaking require less time?
Trading success, comes from screen time and experience, you have to put the hours in!
Posted January 30, 2010 at 7:54 pm
by Chuck Butler
Editor, The Currency Capitalist
If you have been reading FX University Daily lately, then you already know that we’ve seen a major dollar rally in January. In fact, the world’s biggest hedge funds have been buying up the main dollar fund (NYSE:UUP) like there’s no tomorrow.
The primary reason for the dollar rally?
It’s because we’re finally seeing a long overdue correction in stocks and commodities. As a result, traders are dumping their riskier assets and rushing for what they consider the relative safety of the dollar.
(Remember, the dollar’s status as world reserve currency may be up for debate, but it’s not gone yet…so any bad news for stocks still equals great news for the dollar in the short-term.)
As a result, all major currencies have pulled back against the dollar over the last month. In other words, all major foreign currencies are now on sale!
Just like with stocks, the best long-term investors always buy assets when they’re undervalued. You want bargains – not overbought assets.
For currencies, you want to buy when the dollar is temporary stronger, so long-term you have the opportunity for more gains. It’s also a great time just to hedge your long-term dollar exposure with a few currency plays.
[ Editor's Note: For the bes way to play and profit from the USD rise, login to your Wealth Vault members area and click on the WVA Notices link from the News Desk ]
Posted January 28, 2010 at 9:25 am
By: Forrest Jones
Editor’s Note – to learn the best way to profit from this very contrarian prediction, login to the Wealth Vault (if you’re not already logged in), click on the ‘WVA Alerts’ link from the News Desk, and then read about our January 4th trade.
Japanese stocks will be the best investment among the world’s biggest markets during 2010, says Byron Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Services and former chief market strategist for the Pequot Capital Management hedge fund.
Stock prices are low and the economy is improving in Japan, which is good news for companies there, Wien tells Bloomberg.
“I would definitely start buying now,” Wien says.
“Everybody who could sell Japan has sold Japan. Everybody is on one side of the boat. My view is that we have a pretty good chance of having this one be the best of the major industrialized markets. It’s not a boom, but things are getting better.”
The yen, meanwhile, has weakened from record highs, which makes Japanese exports more competitive.
The Japanese government recently issued a report saying that it had not changed its assessment of the economy although Tokyo did remove foreign exchange and stock-price volatility from a list of risks it is watching.